Stop Listening to Shady Bitcoin Influencers
Duration
12:24
Captions
1
Language
EN
Published
Sep 16, 2025
Description
Thanks for watching. If you want to check any of the data for yourself, as we say... dont trust, verify. https://chartinspect.com/ If you want updates on new charts, or analysis, my telegram community is open to everyone: Telegram: https://t.me/chartinspect https://t.me/chartinspectalerts If this analysis helps your crypto journey, please subscribe, hit the like button, and share your thoughts in the comments!
Captions (1)
Hey guys, today I'm about to show you
why 95% of Bitcoin influencers are
either lying to you or have no idea what
they're talking about. And more
importantly, I'm going to show you
actual data that reveals what's really
happening in Bitcoin. Data that most of
these influencers have never even heard
of to be honest. A little bit about
myself. I'm Tristan. I've been in
Bitcoin since I was 16 and I've been
programming since I was 14 as well. In
the past few years, I've been obsessed
with understanding how Bitcoin works and
the psychology behind crypto traders
with a datadriven mindset. And today,
we're going to look at what the
blockchain is actually saying, not what
some guy with laser eye profile picture
wants you to believe.
And here's the thing that always
bothered me about Bitcoin analysis.
Everyone's always obsessed with price
action, drawing lines on the chart, or
what some guy on Twitter thinks, but
they're either selling you something,
following the crowd, or just making
predictions based on like rather than
data.
And while traders are drawing lines on
price charts, institutions are reading
the blockchain. Every transaction, every
UTXO movement, every wallet behavior,
it's all public data that tells you
exactly what's happening beneath the
surface.
So, one example I want to show is the
peak mania phase of uh during 2021's
bull bull market. And while influencers
were screaming at you to buy the dip
when Bitcoin was at was going from 57
rangebound to 40K during this entire
distribution phase up here, take a look
at like what long-term holders were
doing during that entire period. They
were selling and offloading Bitcoin on
mass and then the blockchain was
literally showing clear signs of
distribution.
If you're listening to influencers
instead of reading the actual data, you
probably bought during this period and I
did too, thinking you were getting a
discount and then the market crashed
from over 50% uh from from about 60k to
30K in May of 2021.
And many short-term holders were also
capitulating during this period here in
which they were buying this whole
distribution phase and then selling the
whole way down up until the bare market.
And if you didn't sell, you had to wait
5 years after the bare market just to
break even when Bitcoin hit it at about
in about uh March 12, 2024.
The truth is honestly the blockchain
tells you everything you need to know.
You just need to know how to read it.
And that's exactly what I'm going to
show you today.
So, every Bitcoin transaction is
recorded forever. And you and when you
know how to analyze this data, you can
see exactly what different types of
cohorts of different types of holders
are doing. So when you think about it
like this, when someone buys or sells or
sends or receives Bitcoin, that creates
a UTXO, an unspent transaction output
with an exact timestamp and the exact
price when that Bitcoin was last moved
on chain. When someone sells that
Bitcoin, the UTXO gets spent and
consumed. And since you can see every
UTXO recorded permanently on the
blockchain,
you can track millions of these outputs
and inputs and see precisely when
different cohorts of holders are
selling. You can distinguish these
between long-term holders and short-term
holders, whales or retail investors, and
you can calculate when they're realizing
profits or losses based on the original
cost basis that they sent or received
the Bitcoin.
So this is chart inspect the platform I
built to make this data accessible. And
let me show you a couple of powerful ind
indicators that reveal what's actually
happening on the blockchain.
So this is a standard soaper. So it's
suspent output profit ratio. That's ex
basically what I was talking about when
when you're receiving Bitcoin or sending
Bitcoin at a certain price stamp and
when you sell it, that price gets locked
on chain and you can basically realize
those losses or profits whenever someone
sells or buys.
And this shows you when people are
selling at a loss or a profit. So above
one means it's a profit and below one
means it's a loss. And I've applied a
30-day moving average here because the
original indicator is very very noisy.
So in order to look at it a bit a bit
better, you can also look at the
adjusted soaper. So the adjusted
variation is essentially a variation
that excludes the output.
No, it it excludes the bitcoins being
held for less than an hour. And this
gives you a clearer picture of when
actual behav actual investor behavior is
occurring and not just people either uh
sending through their exchanges or or
exchange shuffling bitcoins through
different exchanges. So the next
indicator I want to show is the soaper
volatility ratio. So it's the spent uh
spent output profit ratios deviation in
terms of volatility which is the
standard deviation in in this case. So
for the long-term holder soap or SVR the
volatility ratio you can clearly see
that whenever we reach periods of high
risk long-term holders typically are
offloading relatively speaking to the
historical volatility which is standard
deviation and that results in periods of
high ratio and conversely when Bitcoin's
price is either going sideways or not
doing
then or during periods of bare markets
then you can see the that the volatility
ratio is actually going is actually
either going to zero or negative or
negative or going sideways.
You can see this in all the bare markets
that have occurred historically and even
the one in in November of 2022. So this
is one variation of the of the SVR that
you can look at. can also look at the
short-term holder sober variation which
is a little bit noisier and it's more
prone to volatility but you can still
see that whenever Bitcoin reaches those
high volatility regimes uh relative to
historical volatility that can typically
mark periods of of high risk. And
another way you can look at it is also
the adjusted soaper which is very
similar but as you can see periods of
high volatility can correspond to tops
local tops and low volatility or low uh
or negative volatility can also uh
correspond to uh local lows in the
price.
So another way uh to look at this is
also to to look at it through the
long-term holder
extreme long-term holder profits to
losses unrealized profits or losses.
It's converse not not sober but not
spend output profit ratio not tracking
when someone's selling or someone's
buying but it's literally just oh what
what is the the total unrealized profit
or loss in the system on the blockchain.
And this is actually a very very
interesting mean aversion model. And
I've actually programmed this myself.
And you can look at all the indicators
uh by cohort, by short-term holders, by
long-term holders. You can also see the
exact calculations I'm using on my
website. And and yeah, so this one is
very interesting in that we are actually
experiencing a very high level of
volatility compared to uh historical
levels.
And another indicator I want to look at
here is the null by cohort, which is
taking into consideration this net
unrealized profit and loss that I've
just discussed. And it's converting that
into an actual actionable risk metric
that you can see whenever max pain,
capitulation, fear, optimism, greed,
euphoria are in play. And when you're
looking at these overall groups, the
overall nupal, short-term holders, null,
these are the speculators, long-term
holders, the diamonds, diamond hands,
and the AVI nal, which uses actually
uses cumulative investor caps for the
true market mean. And if you want to
learn more about how these are all
calculated, you can check the each
individual chart on the website to learn
more.
and and yeah, so this chart basically
shows us the the six phases that I
discussed and currently we're actually
in the in the greed zone which with
sprinkles of of euphoria at around 12K.
We briefly touched at 106K, but then we
went briefly back into an optimism
phase, which you could have bought back
at sold at 110K and bought back at at
82K, but
majority of the time, you want to be
selling at in periods of high risk where
the entire market across the board is
experiencing high risk. And there are
multiple different indicators to look at
when these reg regime changes are
happening, but this is just one of them.
And it's not perfect, but it certainly
gives you a a a general overview of what
the market's feeling at any given time
with respect to historical volatility
and all that. So, it's based on
mathematics, not just people telling
you, oh, the price is just going to go
higher. It's going to go to 1 million.
Do you trust me?
So, let's switch to another indicator
which shows you the hodler's net
position change. This shows you when
basically long-term investors are
actually accumulating. when everyone
else is panicking and every bull market
top massive red bars show up and money
distributes to retail. So whenever the
bars go to green that means a positive
flow into net hodddlers wallets and
whenever it goes into the red that means
net hodler or hodlers are basically
distributing their bitcoin.
So
whenever influencers are telling you to
hodddle forever forever at risk at
periods of high risk or sell everything
at periods of clear accumulation when
hodlers are basically buying up all the
Bitcoin they can. The actual hodlers are
showing us their behavior through their
actions and the data doesn't lie.
And here's what I want you to
understand. Bitcoin is the most
transparent financial system in human
history. Every transaction, every hodler
behavior, every market cycle is recorded
permanently and publicly.
These indicators that I showed you, the
soap or nuple net hodddler position,
they're not just opinions. They're
mathematical representations of actual
market behavior. And the next time
someone tells you when Bitcoin is going
to a million dollars next week or that
it's going to go to zero, it can go both
ways. Ask them to show you the onchain
data. Ask them about SOAP or ask them
about null. Most of them won't even know
what you're talking about and that
should tell you everything you need to
know about them. If they do, then that's
a different story in my opinion. But as
always, you need to do your own research
and onchain data can show you where
things are heading.
Finally, if you want to stop being
manipulated by influencer narratives and
start making decisions based on actual
data, everything I showed you today is
available at our website,
chartinsspec.com
and more. The link is in the description
and all the onchain data I have and
programmed is available for 100% free.
The reason I'm making this is because I
want to make educational content about
this, breaking down these advanced
metrics. And if you want to learn more
about Bitcoin or reading about reading
the blockchain like a pro analyst, then
hit subscribe and let me know in the
comments what metrics you want me to
explain next. And remember,
in a world of influencers and
narratives, just
look to the data. The blockchain itself
is one invaluable source of truth. Not
there's many out there. So, learn to
read it and you'll never be misled
again. Thanks for watching.