Don't Mess This Up
Duration
14:28
Captions
1
Language
EN
Published
Sep 13, 2025
Description
Become an Enjoyer: https://www.skool.com/cryptocurrently/about Get the FREE Weekly Report: https://cryptocurrently.beehiiv.com/subscribe Contact: cryptocurrentlyYT@gmail.com Disclaimer: The information in this video is NOT financial advice.
Captions (1)
Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.
Hope you're doing well. I'm incredibly
excited for today's video because even
though there's a ton of uncertainty out
there right now, Bitcoin is exactly
where you'd expect it to be at this
stage of the cycle. Now that we're
getting deeper into 2025, it's no
surprise that Bitcoin is a bit expensive
at current prices, but we're not
extremely overheated quite yet. And I do
expect that Bitcoin still has higher to
go. But I wouldn't consider these
current prices a discount either because
we are quite extended from that 200E
moving average that Bitcoin loves to
return to during bare markets. It's
great to see the recovery we've been
seeing in market sentiment based on the
fear and greed index now getting closer
and closer to the greed region when just
2 weeks ago everybody was fearful
thinking the cycle was officially over.
And you can't have newfound optimism in
market sentiment without new price
targets as well. This one here is
calling for Bitcoin to hit 160K in
October, just one month away based on a
MACD golden cross. And even though we
saw quite a nice rally of 40% last time
we saw this golden cross, when you
account for diminishing returns, maybe
this one will end up giving us about 20
or 30%, and if we apply that to current
price, that would put Bitcoin at about
140 or maybe just under 150K by end of
year, which I think is very reasonable.
But rationality gets completely thrown
out the window when we start talking
about some of these other price targets
like Bitcoin Ballinger bands pointing to
an explosion to 300K Bitcoin. And as you
can see here, it's using a fan favorite,
the cup and handle pattern and saying
that it's pointing to 300k Bitcoin. But
as we've mentioned previously on this
channel, you can't use the cup and
handle pattern on logarithmic charts
because you end up seeing these huge
price jumps. But in case a cup and
handle pattern pointing to 300k Bitcoin
wasn't enough, we also have Bitcoin's
super cycle ignition hinting at 360K
per Bitcoin. And what do you know? We
have another fan favorite. The first
chart pattern that every single investor
and or trader learns, the inverse head
and shoulders. It was the first one I
learned as well, and I started looking
for it absolutely everywhere. But
according to this analysis, we had a
macro head and shoulders pattern and now
we have a micro head and shoulders
pattern after it which should take
Bitcoin to 360K
apparently. And the reason I'm not a
huge fan of this chart pattern is that
they're drawn very arbitrarily. For
example, here the shoulder is the same
in terms of the resistance level, but
here we have one side of the shoulder
quite a bit above the other. And if you
look at the mini head and shoulders
pattern here, you can see that these
lines are being drawn very arbitrarily.
So I have a very hard time relying on
these chart patterns and price targets.
So I like to look at something a bit
more objective like a very clear chart
pattern that Bitcoin loves to do known
as the false breakdown. Also my favorite
price action for Bitcoin in terms of
bullish continuation because there is no
better sign that an asset is stronger
than the bears currently think than
seeing it fall below support and then
quickly reclaim that level. That's a
great sign of strength that is very hard
to argue with. The same way that a false
breakout is a very strong sign of
weakness that is hard to argue with that
usually leads to corrections. Because if
an asset was strong, it should be able
to break out without immediately getting
rejected back into its own range. And if
an asset was weak like Bitcoin was
recently, it should not have been able
to reclaim that range breakdown level of
112K. And based on that price action, I
am very happy with my current
positioning. I've taken a bit of risk
off the table because we are deep into
the cycle, but I still have plenty of
upside exposure in assets that I do
believe have higher to go. And as
always, if you'd like to learn about my
portfolio automation system or mental
models I use to navigate this market or
common mistakes I see so many investors
making, especially as we get to these
later stages of the cycle. You can check
out the crypto enjoyers program and
community in the video description. But
for now, it's great to see that Bitcoin
was able to hold our major support level
combined with that 20week moving
average. And my bias as of right now is
to expect higher prices until that
changes. And this is why Monday's free
weekly report was called signs of life.
We ended up seeing that nice bounce off
support while everybody was being very
pessimistic. And now we're seeing a bit
of inflows coming back to the ETFs as
the crypto market cap crosses $4
trillion once again, which is an insane
number to say out loud. You can see the
ETF inflows are starting to trickle back
in for Bitcoin here, probably because of
all the excitement surrounding the
upcoming rate cut. And we're getting
very close to finding out whether we're
going to be seeing a final push into
September and maybe even October or if
we're going to end up seeing a full
reset because the Fed surprises the
market by being more hawkish than we
currently anticipate in next week's FOMC
meeting. Now, I'm still leaning towards
the final push because right now the
market is very optimistic and is likely
going to continue rallying in the short
term no matter what the Fed says. But
what happens in the medium-term is going
to depend if the Fed ends up being as
accommodative as the market is currently
pricing in. It's nice to see September
being green, similar to 2024 and 2023.
But even though the month is far from
over, I'm sure a lot of investors are
expecting a green October and November.
But as I've been saying recently, I
don't think historic seasonality is
going to matter much for the remainder
of 2025 because we are at a major pivot
point in the Fed's monetary policy. So,
I do expect those decisions to have a
much bigger impact on markets than
seasonality. And speaking of monetary
policy, we do have the global liquidity
index getting very close to making new
highs. And I've been getting a lot of
questions on this brief pullback we got
on the global liquidity index and
whether that means the market is also
going to correct during that exact same
time frame. That kind of misses the
point of this indicator. This isn't some
magic signal which is going to tell us
the exact day Bitcoin is going to top.
and the exact day Bitcoin is going to
bottom. I don't plan to sell my entire
portfolio on September 15th just to try
and buy back the entire portfolio on
October 15th because the global
liquidity index said so. It just
provides us a very nice trend to have a
general idea of when we should be
optimistic or concerned about what
Bitcoin is doing. It helped us take some
profits in March of 2024 and buy the dip
and stay optimistic in September of
2024. It helped us lock in profits in
January of 2025 and December of 2024
because of the downtrend. And it kept us
in the game and kept us bullish during
April of this year when everybody was
panicking that it was all over and the
global economy was about to collapse
because of tariffs. And what do you
know? Bitcoin ended up recovering. Of
course, this isn't the only driver of
markets, but because Bitcoin's main use
case is as a currency debasement hedge,
it makes sense that what's happening
globally with liquidity and currencies
would have a general macro impact on
what Bitcoin and other risk assets are
doing. So, we'll see what happens. For
now, the US dollar index continues to
look weak, which is good for global
liquidity and good for risk assets like
Bitcoin. But a lot of the dollar's price
action is going to depend on what the
Fed tells us in next week's FOMC
meeting. The market is almost completely
convinced we're going to get a 25 basis
point cut. And it's going to be
interesting to hear Powell's comments on
the recent labor market weakness with
the unemployment rate breaking above
4.2% or the recent spike we've seen in
initial jobless claims recently. Now,
one spike doesn't mean it's the end of
the world. But if this does end up
picking up steam and gaining some
momentum, that would be very bad for the
economy and markets. So, it's going to
be interesting to see what Powell says
about it because inflation is very
stubborn at 3%. And they will likely
have to destroy the economy to bring it
down to their 2% target, which I don't
believe they have the will to do
whatsoever, especially with the pressure
coming from the administration. So,
we're likely going to see the Fed enter
a rate cutting cycle with inflation at
3%, real GDP growth also at 3%, which is
GDP minus inflation, and with the stock
market at an all-time high, and with
Bitcoin trading at an all-time high, or
nearly an all-time high as well. And
speaking of trading very near a previous
all-time high, Ethereum put in a decent
bounce this week, but it is still a
lower high and rejection at 4,800. We'll
see what continuation looks like next
week, but I do believe Ethereum could
still spend some more time cooling off.
We've seen a big slowdown in ETF
inflows, but at least we're not seeing
any huge outflows anymore. Ethereum
corporate treasuries are still buying up
Ethereum, but the purchases are getting
smaller and smaller with Bitmine buying
200 million this week. And we can see
this beginning to flatline in terms of
this treasury buying. Similar to what
happened with Bitcoin, it is much easier
to move the price with purchases when
the price of the asset and the market
cap is lower. But as the Ethereum market
cap, similar to the Bitcoin market cap,
gets larger and larger, it takes more
and more incremental dollars to actually
move it. And we're starting to see that
play out here. But there still seems to
be a ton of excitement surrounding
Ethereum with the CME futures open
interest still very near all-time highs.
Perhaps some of these are short
positions that are hedging Ethereum ETF
holdings and just bringing in the
premium. But I would be very careful
expecting something like a $12,000
Ethereum, $16,000 Ethereum, or a 20k
Ethereum anytime soon because we're
already starting to see that rotation of
narrative into some of the smaller
altcoins which have smaller market caps
and means they also have more upside
potential if they start to get some
corporate treasuries and ETFs of their
own. So for now, it's no surprise that
Ethereum is cooling off here at our
major pivot level. Is it going to break
above it immediately? It is very hard to
know, but I do believe Ethereum Bitcoin
still has higher to go. It's been nice
locking in some Ethereum gains on the
way up so that I can see this trade all
the way through. But it might take some
time for Ethereum to actually break
above that major pivot level on its
Bitcoin pair because of that slowdown
we've been seeing in ETF inflows and in
corporate treasury purchases. But some
of our main narratives for this asset
class are still fully underway with
stable coin supply hitting $300 billion
on coin market cap. We also have
realworld assets hitting 29 billion
which may seem small but even a year ago
this was well under 10 billion and has
been growing very very rapidly recently.
And we are seeing early signs of a mini
alt season. And the alt season index
just looks at what percentage of the top
50 coins are outperforming Bitcoin on a
threemonth rolling basis. And as of
right now, we're seeing a signature very
similar to the mini alt season we saw in
November of 2024 and the mini alt season
we saw in March of 2025. Very hard to
know exactly how long this is going to
carry on for, but what I am watching is
the ETF deadlines coming in about
midocctober because they just got
delayed by the SEC recently. And the
final deadline for some assets like
Salana and XRP are coming at around
October 12th or 15th. And I would not be
surprised if we kept up some excitement
and momentum going into those launches
as maybe a sell the news event. But as
of right now, it does seem like altcoins
are outperforming Bitcoin by quite a bit
on a 90-day rolling basis. But it will
likely end up being underwhelming
compared to the alt season we saw in
2021. The same way the alt season in
2021 was underwhelming compared to 2017
because there are more and more assets
today. And these assets have larger and
larger market caps, which means it is
very hard to see the multiples we saw
previously. And it's important to keep
that in mind in terms of your price
targets and what type of goals you have
this cycle for your altcoins. And
speaking of goals for our altcoins,
Salana continues to grind its way higher
towards our target at 260. When it first
got rejected at its range high, we
looked for a bounce off the range mid
and that's where it bottomed. Then once
we broke above the range high, we
started targeting the 2022 high and it
seems to be working its way there quite
nicely. We're seeing a lot of excitement
and open interest starting to build on
Salana with the recent corporate
treasuries for Salana and the upcoming
Salana ETF. You can see the huge spike
in open interest we've seen recently as
investors try to frontr run those
corporate treasury purchases and the
launch of that Salana ETF. And we are
starting to see very solid price action
for Salana Bitcoin here. Getting ready
to close above its previous range low
confirming this as a major false
breakdown where so many people started
capitulating expecting it to follow the
path of Ethereum Bitcoin. A close above
this range low would make me target the
range mid as our next target for Salana
against its Bitcoin pair. Meaning we
would expect some continued
outperformance from Salana over the next
month or two. And speaking of
outperformance, it is catching up to
Ethereum and Bitcoin very quickly on a
yearly rolling basis. And we're getting
very close to Ethereum outperforming
Bitcoin on this past year and Salana
outperforming both of them on this past
year as well, which is what I would love
to see before this cycle ends. But of
course, a lot of that is going to depend
on Bitcoin maintaining structure and
slowly grinding higher here and not
falling back below that 112K level and
losing that bullish range reclaim that
we are putting in right now. But as we
look forward, the federal government is
still running huge deficits and that
trend seems to be worsening year after
year. Exponential debt growth means
exponential money supply growth. And as
that fiat currency gets debased, it puts
upward pressure on our risk assets like
the S&P 500 and our fixed supply risk
assets like Bitcoin. But as always, let
me know what you expect. Thank you so
much for the support on the recent
videos. Thank you so much for watching
and I'll talk to you